Now that all 50 states have certified their results (save for one House race in New York's 22nd CD), it's a natural time for a reckoning on what transpired down-ballot. And yet, Republicans shattered our and others' expectations, gaining at least 11 seats. Dem Democrats' genuinely progressive challengers fared the worst. Pelosi can thank these missed GOP opportunities for her razor-thin majority. With amazing consistency, Republican candidates outperformed private surveys by mid-single digits. The same was true of private polls. And, as more and more October polls showed Biden with commanding leads, it's possible that more voters went to the polls expecting Biden to win and opted for a GOP "check" against Democrats going too far left, much as in 2016. United States interactive 2020 House Cook Political Report forecast 0 • Cook Political Report'sfinal prediction for the composition of the House following the 2020 election should be music to Democrats' ears. • If we had picked one Democrat to have the best chance to survive out of the Toss Up column, it probably wouldn't be Rep. Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), who sits in a district Trump carried handily twice. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. HOUSE SEATS. Relatively few Democratic challengers aired ads inoculating themselves against these attacks. After all, a minuscule number of House Democrats actually identify as "democratic socialists" or have advocated reducing police funding. //-->. 2020 House Vote Tracker | The Cook Political Report 2020 National House Vote Tracker By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. In 2018, Democrats ran up the score by recruiting political outsiders, especially women with national security backgrounds, to challenge GOP "insiders." August 30, 2019 @Redistrict. We keep missing people who end up turning out to vote.". Ind, 0 Dem In fact, had Democrats performed exactly five points better on the margin in all 435 districts, every race in our "lean" and "likely" columns would have been correct, Democrats would have won 11 of the 27 Toss Ups, and they would have gained seven seats overall. Before then, pollsters and analysts will have time to conduct a proper autopsy, using comprehensive voter file data, of how the polls might have failed to anticipate the 2020 electorate. And in October, a Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Republican Young Kim leading Rep. Gil Cisneros 47 percent to 46 percent. Overall, the "core four" outside groups — DCCC, HMP, NRCC and CLF — spent $442 million on House races ($226 million by Democrats to $216 million for Republicans). But after the rise of AOC, the primaries and 'defund the police,' it was easier to paint them as radical.". Rep Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. As tempting as it is to believe all races have become nationalized and can be predicted with algorithms, candidate quality and local concerns still matter. Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." The Cook Political Report; Ratings; House HOUSE 2020 House Race Ratings Nov 2, 2020 PDF Document. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); The only races where Democrats are still holding out hope are New York's 22nd CD, where Rep. Anthony Brindisi trails by 12 votes pending a court-ordered recanvass of votes, and Iowa's 2nd CD, where Democrat Rita Hart is contesting her GOP opponent's certified six vote margin before the House Administration Committee. But in a presidential cycle with plenty of voters who aren't immersed in the policy weeds, these attacks worked. As of November 2, 2020 The final 2020 House forecast from The Cook Political Report. These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. That initial instinct proved to be correct. 0 Otherwise, 25 of the 27 Toss Ups broke to the GOP. Although 2020's polling errors weren't historically unprecedented in size, the industry as a whole (but especially traditional telephone pollsters) is headed for upheaval. For example, it may have mattered more than pundits realized that Hispanic Republicans ran against non-Hispanic, non-Spanish speaking Democrats in both FL-27 and TX-23. You can also view this forecast as … Both parties invested accordingly, but the down-ballot anti-Trump "suburban revolt" never materialized on Election Night. Ind, 0 Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. Trump won 74 million votes, unquestionably driving out millions of low-propensity, right-leaning voters who would otherwise never turn out to vote for a more conventional down-ballot Republican in a midterm or off-year election. But at the time, neither the NRCC nor the CLF was putting their money behind their talk in press releases. But Republicans never followed through on their early insistence they would spend in Scranton against Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and abandoned the race against Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14) after their least preferred candidate won the GOP primary. In January, there will be nine "Biden Republicans" and at most seven "Trump Democrats.". The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, Five Takeaways From Our 2020 House Forecast — and Three Resolutions for 2021 and Beyond. 0 [CDATA[// >